Correlation Economics Backup

U.S. dollar COFER composition stays at 62%.

Recession imminent. GDP growth likely below 2%.  

Goods trade deficit worsening.

It is not inconceivable that we will see the silver price follow the gold price higher. Gold usually leads the silver price by a year or two.We could see silver go to $20/ounce soon. Case study: Let's say silver goes from $15/ounce to $20/ounce. That's a rise of $5/ounce. Endeavour silver has 10 million of silver production per year (Terronera included). That would be an extra profit of 10 million x $5/ounce = $50 million per year. Add a 10 P/E on that and you get a market cap of $500 million. => Endeavour silver could triple in stock price when this happens. Not to mention what would happen when silver goes higher than $20/ounce.

I found a new site where you can view the Shanghai gold premiums and it's shooting up. This means the gold market is very tight in China.

What do you think will happen when inflation stays at the 2% Fed target, while global bond yields fall into negative territory. => negative real interest rate => good for gold

Unemployment rate to rise. Growth is slowing down.  Interest rates will go lower.  

This number tells it all. The direct cost arising from the negative ECB deposit rate is about one-quarter of German bank profits.

Thanks Lynette for answering my question!

If I don't have any ideas anymore what to buy, I use the  stock screener . Neo Performance Materials is a speculative play on the China rare earth export ban. What you want to do is filter on 4 attributes: market cap, P/E, dividend yield and percentage change. 1) Market Cap: do not choose small companies as they are mostly fraudulent or don't have sustainable earnings. Don't choose big companies because these are not volatile enough to get fast profits from. I'd filter between 200 million and 4 billion. 2) P/E ratio: choose the companies with the lowest P/E ratio, these companies are dirt cheap while still having earnings. Cheap is below P/E of 5. But do not choose below P/E of 2 because those are mostly companies that are going bankrupt or have bad growth. 3) Dividend yield: always choose companies that have dividends, because these companies have real earnings and can prove they have sustainable earnings to reward investors. The higher the better of course, but d...

The May deficit to outlay ratio went to 47%, every number above 40% is hyperinflationary. Now is the time to protect yourself.

The Fed will cut rates, probably somewhere at the end of the year.

What are the implications of negative yielding debt?

  http://bruegel.org/reader/Excess_liquidity   The Court of Justice of European Union allows the ECB to only purchase 30% of government debt.

China rare earth exports have declined, due to export ban speculation. Exports declined to 3,640 tons last month, down 16% from April and an 18% drop from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs data on Monday. Rare earth prices have come down to historic levels.

If the Fed doesn't end QT soon, the deficit will skyrocket. The Fed needs QE to cancel its debt and deficits.