Vehicle Sales Vs. Autocatalyst Demand (Platinum/Palladium/Rhodium)
Vehicles need autocatalysts like rhodium/palladium/platinum. China is increasingly using more of these PGM's in their vehicles. Chinese vehicle sales : U.S. vehicle sales:
Posts
Wallstreetbets Pushes SLV To Record High
Wallstreetbets has ignited a buying frenzy in the SLV trust pushing the amount of ounces in the trust to a record high.
Physical silver ounces held hits record high
The silver price should be going up together with the amount of physical silver ounces held.
Iron Ore Vs. Floor Space Under Construction China
Iron ore is correlated to China construction. Floor space under construction by property developers in China. All the construction data for China can be found here. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/commodity-building-floor-space-under-construction-monthly China steel production data needs to be monitored.
Sibanye-Stillwater
Platinum, palladium and rhodium have all been moving higher and I expect them to go higher as China is loading more palladium and rhodium in their vehicles. China vehicle sales have rebounded as well. Both palladium and rhodium are in deficit. Platinum is going to be used in 3-way catalysts , which will boost platinum prices. Sibanye-Stillwater expects platinum to reach $2000 per ounce in 2025. Sibanye-Stillwater has exposure to all of these metals. SBSW's production numbers were very good. SBSW's EBITDA was $922 million in Q3 2020. This translates to $3.7 billion EBITDA per year. With a 5 multiple, SBSW should be valued at $18 billion market cap. So there is 50% upside. The company has no net debt. Net earnings were $1 billion per year in 2020, but is expected to rise 66% on higher rhodium/platinum prices and higher production numbers. Earnings per share are expected to be at $3.52 per share, which gives Sibanye-Stillwater a P/E of 4.8 which is very cheap. On top of thi...
Iron Ore
China's iron ore production is not growing. This is because costs of production are very high in China. China is the largest iron ore consumer and iron ore imports are growing. China iron ore imports hit a record in 2020. Iron ore demand is going to grow. Iron ore is currently in deficit . Brazil and Australia have the largest iron ore reserves . Therefore Vale is a good investment.
Seasonality of Commodities
Commodities should be bought during seasonally strong periods. Oil Natural Gas Uranium Lead Nickel Copper Zinc Aluminium Precious metal price seasonality Gold Silver Palladium Platinum Agricultural price seasonality Soybeans Sugar Cotton Cocoa Coffee Corn Wheat Lumber
China Power Consumption is Growing
China power consumption hit a high of 8.8% in December 2020. GDP was up 6.5%.
