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Showing posts from April, 2021

Government Stimulus is Inflationary

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Government stimulus will push up M2 and M2 will push up inflation. The PCE, which is a broader measure of the CPI clearly indicates that inflation is going to hit.

Copper Checklist (backup)

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To be able to time the copper market you need to take into account a lot of things. Here is a checklist. 1) Kilian Zhou Real Economy Index The Kilian Zhou Real Economy Index tracks commodity markets. It’s derived from a panel of dollar-denominated global bulk dry cargo shipping rates. It may be viewed as a proxy for the volume of shipping in global industrial commodity markets. 2) Copper/Gold Ratio The copper/gold ratio is correlated to the 10 year bond yield.  3) Copper LME Warehouse Stock Whenever the LME/COMEX warehouse stock level  drops, there is a shortage in copper and copper prices will rise. Also check the  inventory in China .  SHFE copper warehouse stock  can be found  here . SMM bonded warehouse copper stock level can be found  here .  4) China Power Consumption Watch China demand for copper. High power consumption means high China GDP and higher demand for copper. 5) China Credit Impulse The China credit impulse is a leading indicat...