Correlation Economics Backup

Food prices are correlated to fertilizer prices, because when food rises (leading indicator), farmers will be able to buy more fertilizer. Then they grow more food and that will push food prices back down. Buy Verde Agritech to bet on rising fertilizer prices. Trust me.    Fertilizer price index can be found here .  

Some silver miner ideas. 

  Some people say lithium will still go up in 2022. Chamath says lithium will be the best performing asset in 2022. In 2022, lithium carbonate supply will climb to 636,000 mt from 497,000 mt in 2021, but the demand will also jump to 641,000 mt from 504,000 mt. Lithium seems to have a huge future. Lithium  is in deficit. Rio Tinto  projection. Savannah resources  projection. UBS expectations . Lithium battery demand  will grow. Mostly due to EVs . Deficit  will grow. Lithium market balance by benchmarkminerals . We need a lot of lithium to transition from fossil fuels. Short term we could have a  bumpy ride . And all  mines  are currently already in production at the current lithium price. Same for  spodumene . Even if lithium prices soar, this doesn't have a significant effect on EV prices. That's because battery packs are very cheap. A battery pack is 50% material cost. Of that cathode material cost, lithium is half of that cost. LFP ...

Central banks bought 100 tonnes QoQ.  

Aluminum is expected to go in deficit in the coming years. Since steel is correlated to aluminum, you can also buy steel companies. Hint: ArcelorMittal.

China is slowing down. 

The new dot plot from the FOMC meeting minutes . Old dot plot.  

 

The Black Swan Indicator from Dr. Eurodollar gives a good indication when to buy or sell the stock market.  

CAPEX is a leading indicator for equity returns. 

The amount of money in margin accounts is a leading indicator for the stock market as we are living in a credit based economy.  

Inflation is going to rise a lot.