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Showing posts from January, 2022

Palm Oil is Indicating a Surge in Crude Oil

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The palm oil price has made new all time highs and is a leading indicator for the crude oil price. As the palm oil price hits new highs, it is not economic anymore to add it to biodiesel and this will lead to a price increase in crude oil. Crude oil is going much higher.

Gold is being repatriated

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FRBNY gold deposits are shrinking, indicating a recession could be coming. 

Energy Vs. Population

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More people means more energy consumption. What if energy gets cut off?

Gas prices are skyrocketing in USA

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USA is selling cheap gas to Europe.

Cobalt Deficit

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Cobalt remains in deficit .  

Balance of Payments

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The USD is dependant on the current account and capital account. Since the current account deficit is widening, the capital account needs to rise in order to stabilize the USD. If the equity markets fall with a rising current account deficit, the USD will fall. Current account declining: Capital account rising: Stable USD: This video explains it:

Agriculture has just started

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Since fertilizer prices are correlated to agricultural commodities (aka food), Verde Agritech has just started its multi-year bull market. With tensions in Belarus (Russia is occupying Belarus which provides 15% of global potash), Lithuania (supply chain disruptions) and Russia sanctions (Russia provides 50% of global potash), fertilizer prices will skyrocket. Ammonia prices are trading below cost of production. Natural gas is therefore correlated to ammonia and fertilizer prices. Russia and China are already banning fertilizer raw material exports. Fertilizer price index can be found  here . Potash is historically not that expensive when you compare it to the yield gain.     There is an optimal fertilizer to crop yield curve. Video on correlation between natgas and fertilizers.

China Trade Balance Soaring

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I've been telling for years that China's tourism sector has collapsed. Chinese people are now fueling their own domestic economy instead of spending their money abroad. This lead to a soaring trade surplus and the Chinese will now be gobbling up all the commodities with that surplus money.  

Aluminum, Zinc and Copper go in deficit

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 Aluminum, Zinc and Copper go in deficit.

China EV car sales Vs. Lithium

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China is powering the rise in lithium.  

Cannabis prices going lower

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Cannabis going lower. 

Gold Forecaster Index: Forget gold, buy lithium

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