Correlation Economics Backup

Due to high ammonia prices, farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans . This is to use less of nitrogen. However, they both still need potash! Conclusion: when natural gas rises, ammonia rises and potash will rise. Corn uses an N-P-K ratio of 120-80-80. Soybeans use an N-P-K ratio of 0-70-100. No nitrogen is needed because they get the nitrogen from fixating bacteria into nodules that produce plant available nitrogen. This is the reason why natural gas and ammonia rises first and then potash follows .

U.S. dollar dropped to 58.8%, lowest on record, as shown in COFER .  

Got poo? 

There is still a huge arbitrage opportunity between U.S. natural gas and Europe TTF Dutch natural gas.

I noticed that the gold deposits have gone back up. The FRBNY is lying about their numbers.  

It hasn't even started yet.

There is an optimal fertilizer yield that will generate the highest crop produce. If fertilizer prices rise at constant food prices, farmers will use less fertilizer and therefore the crop yield will decline.

No nickel is no batteries. Buy Eramet for nickel exposure. 

 

The Fed is increasing rate hikes. New dot plot: Old dot plot:

Aluminum, copper, zinc and nickel will be in severe deficit . Russia is just a bonus. Stock levels are low, especially nickel.

Possible strike at largest potash producer. Nutrien is planning to increase potash production by 1 million tonnes. However, at the same time Uralkali is suspending its potash production of 12 million tonnes. Do the math.

China power consumption rose in February 2022 . 

The Dow Jones is entering a triple down cycle. It coincides with a crash in the Kilian Zhou economic activity.

 

Yardeni lowered his forecast for the S&P for 2022 from 4800 to 4000, lowered for 2023 from 5200 to 5000 and gave a forecast for 2024 of 5600. Newest: Old:

Chinese eat rice. 

Guess who has the most nickel production per market cap...

Copper could skyrocket.

Sprott Inc new filing.  Sprott bought: New Gold, Skeena Resources, Gold Fields, Gold Royalty, Freeport, Rio Tinto Sprott sold: Euro, Eldorado Gold, Kinross Gold, Kirkland Lake Gold, Barrick Gold, Pan American Silver

A reminder what an oil spike will do to GDP. Be prepared and ask yourself where you are now. (Hint: deglobalization) Visualized like this.