Correlation Economics Backup

There is a correlation between food and ammonia.

When China imports rise, commodities rise.

Fertilizer prices have gone up for both USA and Brazil, which could have a detrimental effect on soybean crop yields. But which country will suffer the most? Soybean prices are generally the same for both countries. Shipping costs are slightly lower for Brazil. However, the cost of production is significantly lower in Brazil due to low overhead costs like property taxes. Even for the direct costs, which include fertilizer and seeds, the costs between the two countries are comparable. This is why Brazil will stay very competitive compared to USA. Brazilian soybean exports are rising.

The discrepancy between CPI with and without food and energy. 

China credit impulse continutes to rise. China is still booming. 

Maybe I'll use more coconut oil now. 

When foreigners sell treasuries, bond yields go up.  

Correlation between inflation and assets. 

It is intriguing that LBMA gold holdings are positively correlated to gold price, but LBMA silver holdings are negatively correlated to silver price. 

Europe is shooting itself in the foot by banning Russian energy.  

Brazil potash pricing is much higher than Canada and U.S.  

 

Contract prices are at $5000/tonne already. With more upside to come in May and June .

Grain shipments were 4 times lower in March compared to February. Since potash is also dry bulk like grain, we can conclude potash shipments are also falling off a cliff.

There is no oil shortage in Brazil. But there is a potash shortage. Hmmmm, which company needs low gasoline prices and high potash prices? Got Verde?

Russia is outlining their plan . It is crucial to read and understand this article to position yourself. We are entering a new era and not going back. In March, logistic supply chains collapsed. - European ports ban imports/exports from/to Russia (Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg). Azov-Black Sea is closed. - Container shipping companies suspend cooperation with Russia (95% freight import to Russia) (MSC, Maersk, CMA and Hapag-Lloyd) (St.-Petersburg, Novorossiysk). - Air freight is closed (FedEx, UPS and DHL). - Railway and automobile routes closed between Poland - Baltic States - Belarus - Ukraine - Russia. The consequences are: - Higher freight rates. - Trade increases between Russia - China by rail. - Increase in price of uranium, coal, oil products, natural gas, metals, timber, neon, vegetable oil, fertilizers, grain, expecially for the world ex-Russia/China.

What is ultimately the most important? Food .  

Yardeni upped his forecast for the S&P500 for 2023-2024 from 5600 to 5700. Old: New:  Newest: