Correlation Economics Backup

Potash is expected to rise further, possibly 50%.  The model also predicted potash prices could rise to $1,200/ton, while MAP prices could be in the $1,470/ton range, he said. For some perspective, the highest average retail fertilizer price tracked by DTN for anhydrous this spring was $1,534/ton. For potash prices, the high point was set at $881/ton, while MAP peaked at $1,083/ton.

EU is going to have a bad winter as gas supplies are dwindling. LNG and coal are the only solution. 

Whenever the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves get drawn down, oil goes down as supply hits the market.

Oil CAPEX is at decade lows and should support higher oil prices. Whenever CAPEX is low, prices will start rising.

Natural gas is the cheapest energy form and is likely to go higher. 

Fertilizers might have bottomed because of high natural gas prices. Plants are shutting down.

This environment is getting worse per generation.

Food prices will not come down until production rises.  

We are going into a very long recession . I recommend to be in cash and gold.

Something is very different in this recession compared to 2008. 

It is time to sell copper miners for now.  

Natty will never drop. Anyone who thinks natty and food will drop again is dreaming. Natural gas is the cheapest energy available and many will use it. And gas supply is going to be flat.

The Federal Reserve is planning to hike rates until 3.5% by the end of this year. Meanwhile GDP growth hits 0%.  

When Indians earn lots of money from agriculture , they buy lots of gold.

Yardeni decreased the outlook for the S&P500 from 3825-4335 to 3315-4080 in 2022 and from 4400-4950 to 4125-4675 in 2023. New: Old:  

Remember this formula. Money supply is up, velocity is up and goods produced are declining. Guess what will happen with prices?

Hurricanes are good for the price of oil and gas.  

Belangp created a nice corrrelation here. What is the annualized return stocks vs gold today? What is the annualized return of currency vs gold today?

No building materials.

Something is in short supply...

When freight costs rise, the price of the good transported will rise with it. In this case fertilizers.  

Even this is a correlation.  

A way to look at the  annualized equity return  is based on this formula: (equity+debt)/market value of equity. The black line shows the annualized stock return that investors earned over the subsequent 10 years.

As farmland goes up, more farmers will need to use fertilizer. Therefore, farmland is correlated to fertilizer .  

 

Fertilizers are less affordable now, but this should change when food prices skyrocket.  

OPEC+ fails. The result is that energy companies are making money on an oil price rise.

Refineries are making big bucks. This also means that crude oil should go higher as refineries will keep demanding for that crude oil.

I think we are in the Market Top section, which means we should be in energy stocks. 

Sprott Inc. filed their holdings. Buys: Notable is Vale, Exxon, Steel Dynamics. Some gold mines: Kinross Gold, Sibanye, Newmont, Vizsla. Sells: Vista gold, Mcewen, Kirkland, Gatos Silver and euro.