Correlation Economics Backup

Stocks bottomed.

The Fed hike pain will be over at the end of the year. 

No gas, no fertilizer. 

Premiums are out of whack.

The euro crash hasn't even started yet.

Equity allocation is inversely correlated to equity returns.  

Construction is a leading indicator for home prices.  

 

Nenner says commodities will go up in the coming year starting from November 2022.  Base metals will be weak. Wheat is bottoming out in August. Gold has weakness and will start going up by the end of the year. Silver is going nowhere for two years. Oil is going down. Natural gas going down until October 2022.

It doesn't look like Nordstream will reopen at full capacity.

When the China credit impulse rises, the U.S. dollar drops.  

Interesting article . Natural gas flows to Europe are dangerously low. LNG imports are at all time highs. China hasn't reopened yet. Asia and EU LNG are correlated. Germany gas storage is dropping during the summer. Italy is worse.

Energy shock coming. 

Temporary workers are a leading indicator for a recession as they are easy to be fired.

Gas to skyrocket.  

 

2008 was a deflationary recession while 2022 will be an inflationary recession.    

No U.S. manufacturing jobs. 

And I expect it to keep plummeting with higher natural gas prices. 

Yardeni decreased the outlook for SP500 from 3315-4080 to 3290-3995 in 2022 and from 4125-4675 to 3825-4590 in 2023. New: Old:  

The murder rate is correlated to inflation.  

J.P. Morgan sees $380/barrel oil. 

Good sign for fertilizers.

There is a linear correlation between oil and gasoline/diesel.  

The Gregg Ibendahl formula is a leading indicator for ammonia prices and can be used to accurately predict fertilizer prices.