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Showing posts from August, 2022

LNG is booming

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LNG capacity to increase by 50%. Buy Birchcliff energy. LNG demand will add about 10% to U.S. natgas demand in 3 years.

Investing in Santacruz Silver for Zinc

Zinc is an interesting play, you can play this with Santacruz Silver. For more info on zinc, go here.

Sprott Holdings Update: August 2022

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New Sprott report is out:  https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0001512920 Sprott bought the following: I-80 Gold, Schnitzer Steel, McEwen Mining, Sandstorm Gold, Steel Dynamics. Sprott sold the following: Hycroft, Microstrategy, Shell, Excellon, Franklin Resources, Gold Fields, Sibanye, Wheaton, Equinox, Mag Silver.  

Zinc Vs. Natural Gas

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Zinc is very energy intensive and requires natural gas and electricity to be produced.  

Rainfall Vs. Food Production

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Generally rainfall is correlated to food production.  

Meat Consumption Vs. Real GDP per Capita

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Meat consumption rises with real GDP per capita. 

Deforestation Vs. Food Prices

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Under Lula's presidency we saw a massive decline in deforestation, which lead to higher food prices. The reason for this being less farms means less food production. Also, farms are getting depleted of nutrients and will need lots of fertilizer to keep them fertile, while the Amazon would have this natural fertile ground already.

5 Commodities to Buy

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There are 5 commodities to buy. Aluminum, zinc, lithium, sugar and fertilizer (natural gas). 

EU Bans Shipments of Fertilizers from Russia

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EU shipping companies are prohibited from shipping Russian fertilizer . This is shown in the FAQ published on 10 August 2022. Summary: https://www2.deloitte.com/dl/en/pages/legal/articles/handelsbeschraenkungen-sanktionen-embargos-russland-ukraine.html Guide:  https://www.vbb.com/media/Insights_News/Guide_to_the_EU_sanctions_against_Russia_12.04.pdf Annex XII: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/576/oj#:~:text=and%20parts%20thereof-,ANNEX%20XXII,-LIST%20OF%20COAL We already see that Russia fertilizer imports to Brazil have collapsed in August 2022. Update: The EU has eased it again. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1572484673070329857 https://finance.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/faqs-sanctions-russia-listed-goods_en.pdf

List of Correlations

Once in a while I need to post an update on all discovered correlations, we're getting a huge list already. If I only had some software to get automatic updates of these charts... Positive correlations mean that if one goes up, the other goes up too. Negative correlations mean that if one goes up, the other goes down. Positive correlations: 1)  Silver/Gold premium Vs. Silver/Gold Price   ( link 2 ) 2)  Baltic Dry Vs. Industrial Commodities 3)  Baltic Dry Vs. Copper 4)  Copper Vs. S&P 5)  Oil Vs. Dow Jones 6)  Agriculture Price Vs. Health of Economy 7)  Agriculture/Food (leading indicator) Vs. Fertilizer Price  ( link 2 ) 8)  CRB Index Vs. Commodity prices (oil, agriculture, metals) 9)  MZM velocity Vs. Inflation 10)  MZM velocity Vs. 10 year U.S. treasury yield 11)  Case-Shiller Index Vs. Housing Market Index 12)  Capacity Utilization Vs. Inflation 13)  Rhodium Price Vs. Automotive Industry 14)  Hou...

Tankers Supply Demand

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TANKERS Tanker rates (and tanker stock prices) depend on supply and demand . Demand depends on global oil demand and tanker miles. Russia is exacerbating miles. Diesel flows from far away. EU embargo will lift demand 7X on some routes. Refinery closures in U.S. and Europe need to be supplied by Asia and Middle East as China oil inventories drop and U.S. inventories rise. Supply depends on tanker orders growth and demolitions. The orderbook is very low. Prices are high for ships. Because shipyards are building other things. Demolitions are about to surge. Resulting in lower fleet growth . Utilization rates are still low, so there is room to grow in tanker rates. There were zero VLCC orders in 2024. Oil tankers from Russia are mostly Greek. But Russia exports are collapsing. Tanker rates are rising. The forecasts are good. Russia oil price cap has increased demand for mid size Aframax tankers. As Europeans are not buying Russian oil anymore. Product tankers are in higher demand ...