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Showing posts from February, 2023

Crude Oil in Transit Vs. Tanker Rates

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When there is a lot of oil in transit, you need tankers to store and transport the oil. 

Copper supply and demand

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Here is an update on copper .

Capex to Sales Ratio Oil

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Capex to sales ratio points to higher oil prices. 

Rig count Vs. Oil production

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Rig count Vs. oil production. 

Rig count Vs. Oil production

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Rig count Vs. oil production. 

China Wind Installations

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China is building a lot of wind mills. 

Baltic Dry Index Vs. China Steel Production

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The largest segment of dry bulk (67%) is iron ore, grains and coal. Iron ore segment is in terminal decline. Don't count on grains either because China population is dropping now. Also don't count on coal because that will be phased out due to ESG.

Yield Curve Inversion Vs. Recession

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Deeper yields curve inversion is deeper recession.

Sprott Holdings Update

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Sprott updated its holdings.  Buys: Mainly gold names like i-80 gold corp, Anglogold, Mag Silver, Agnico, Vizsla. Sells: Sold battery and graphite names. Decreased Newmont, Sandstorm and Kinross. Endeavour silver was dumped.

IEA oil supply and demand

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It's looking good for oil.  The secretary general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Haitham Al Ghais said oil demand is projected to rise further to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2025, according to Reuters. 15 February 15 March

Russia cuts oil production by 500K bbl/day

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This is very bullish oil.

Natural Gas Storage Vs. Natural Gas Price

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Natural gas prices are inversely correlated to natural gas storage . 

Rig rates Vs. Rig utilization

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Rig rates Vs. Rig utilization. 

Energy consumption Vs. GDP per capita

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As India and China develop their economies, electricity consumption will increase. 

Margin Debt Vs. SP500

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 Margin debt is pretty low. Chance of a crash is low.

Stock Forecaster Index (backup)

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 The Stock Forecaster Index can predict the movement of stocks and is based on the following parameters: Fed balance sheet expansion Credit spreads Initial jobless claims   The Brave-Butters-Kelley index is leading the stock market. The Fed has its  stock valuation model . Yardeni's forecast  can be found here. Yardeni S&P500 earnings  can be found here.  PE ratios  can be found here for each sector. Growth Vs. Value  stocks. Watch the  Put Call ratio  for short term movements. Check the  Mannarino Index . Low index means low risk, High index means high risk.   The  NAHB housing market index  is leading the business cycle. Charles Nenner  Cycle. Margin accounts  are a leading indicator. CAPEX is a leading indicator for equity returns.    The Black Swan Indicator  tells us when to buy or sell stocks. Check the  Smart Money Flow Index , as it accurately predicts the future performance o...