Copper could double to $9/lb
Glencore chief says that copper needs to rise 50% to meet demand. Some analysts project copper to go to $9/lb in a few years. This is what Capstone Mining looks like at $9/lb.
Posts
Why bond yields can't go much higher
As bond yields rise, less people will take out loans. Lending is decreasing. This is also the reason why I think bond yields can't go much higher and the Fed won't hike rates either.
Government Stimulus is Inflationary
Government stimulus will push up M2 and M2 will push up inflation. The PCE, which is a broader measure of the CPI clearly indicates that inflation is going to hit.
Copper Checklist (backup)
To be able to time the copper market you need to take into account a lot of things. Here is a checklist. 1) Kilian Zhou Real Economy Index The Kilian Zhou Real Economy Index tracks commodity markets. It’s derived from a panel of dollar-denominated global bulk dry cargo shipping rates. It may be viewed as a proxy for the volume of shipping in global industrial commodity markets. 2) Copper/Gold Ratio The copper/gold ratio is correlated to the 10 year bond yield. 3) Copper LME Warehouse Stock Whenever the LME/COMEX warehouse stock level drops, there is a shortage in copper and copper prices will rise. Also check the inventory in China . SHFE copper warehouse stock can be found here . SMM bonded warehouse copper stock level can be found here . 4) China Power Consumption Watch China demand for copper. High power consumption means high China GDP and higher demand for copper. 5) China Credit Impulse The China credit impulse is a leading indicat...